How to score a goal in ice hockey according to Performance
The Average number of Goals per Game in SHL has been low, but during this season has been somewhat higher. However, what that makes it objective anyway? The answer is in the goalkeeper's eye.
In order to save shots there are two elements: first, that the goalie has time to gaze on the puck for a half second before the shot, and that the goalkeeper is not forced to will not move sideways right before the shot. Such a shot meet the criteria for a green shot and is easy for the keeper to save. Only two percent of all green shots become a score.
Performance statistics from 1,000 games in the NHL, KHL, and SHL have been analyzed with regard to which type of shots that score and which does not. The pattern is very clear, if the criteria for a green shot is broken the scoring chance increase from 2 percent to 22 percent. These more difficult shots are called red shots. They are and are very difficult for the goalkeeper to save since this type of shots does not allow the goalkeeper to prepare the save. The time is too short.
Red shots are the shots where the goalie does not have time to see the puck within half a second before the shot is taken. If a goalkeeper is forced to lateral movement within half a second before the shot is also a red, difficult shot. Likewise, rebounds and deflections are examples of situations where the goalie does not have time to see the puck within half a second before the shot is taken, red shots.
A half a second focused gaze, this is what is for the brain to translate the visual impact to a save. This has been shown by the Canadian researcher Joan N. Vickers from Calgary, as well as own research by Performance.
Although a green shot is much easier to save compared to a red shot, goalkeepers are only valued based on how many shots they have saved, regardless red or green. The goalie can get standing ovations for a spectacular green save, while getting boos for a seemingly simple miss of a hidden - red shot. But the green shot was easy to save, the red was difficult for the goalie.
Performance statistics show that it is more common with green shots than red. The breakdown is 72 percent green and 28 percent red shots during the most recent seasons. Good for goalkeepers but not so god for the team that wants to score goals. Anyone who wants to be the scorer may as well stop shooting green shots, the chance to score is so small. Only 2 percent, this means that you have to shoot 50 green shots for one score.
Scores increase if the goalie has short time to gaze shots. Rebounds and deflections is the same – short time to gaze the direction of the puck, as well as when the goalie is screened. To shoot when the you do not see the goalie, who in turn do not see the shot, is also a way to make a red shot.
The most difficult shots are when the goalkeeper is forced to make a lateral movement just before the shot. If a striker within half a second before the shot moves the puck laterally, it is 28 percent chance that for a score. 29 percent chance to score if the puck is passed over the central line immediately followed by a shot.
Who will be this season's scorer? The one who carries the puck laterally in some way before the shot is fired and shoots when the goalkeeper unsighted. Or the one who is well ahead rebounds, makes deflections, screens or gives the goalie few chances to gaze the puck.
Statistics are based on studies of over 1,000 matches in NHL, KHL and SHL.
What determines whether a shot is green or red depends on what happens during the last half second *) before the shot is taken
Which shot is green or red?
Criteria for a green shot:
Criteria for a red shot:
* ) A half second gaze focused on the puck is required for the brain to translate the visual impact to make a save. This is shown by the Canadian researcher Joan Vickers as well as by Performance’s own research.
List of the seven different shot types. The green shot goes under the name of shot 'A' and the remaining six shots B to G are different types of red shots.
Other key figures
The distribution between green and red shots in a game is typically 72 % / 28 %.
The typical shot effectiveness of a red shot is 21.6%.